ai-forecasting
The Hard Season Is the Work
Five schools threw Hans Zimmer out. The man who scored The Lion King, Inception, and Gladiator spent his youth restless, bored, and disruptive. Each school in turn decided he could not be contained. What they could not see was that the restlessness was not resistance; it was energy looking for a channel it would not…
The Output Is Not the Thing
A newsletter this week credited a model with proving a Fermat theorem. The model produced a proof, and the proof checked out. What it did not do was argue the proof; it produced output that satisfied verification, which is not the same thing. A proof is not an answer; it is a human-readable argument, a…
The Commons Was Never Free
The latest filings in the New York Times matter against OpenAI and Microsoft don’t argue about text anymore. They invoke culture. They invoke sports. They invoke the full width of what human beings make when they think nobody is keeping score, which is a much larger category than a newspaper archive and a very different…
What the Surface Doesn’t Show You
A 2009 study found a positive correlation between ice cream cone sales and murder rates. A 2006 survey connected ice cream consumption to drowning deaths. If you stop at the headline, you might conclude that frozen treats make people violent or clumsy. The actual cause is heat; both crimes and cone sales rise when the…
The Zero and the Weasel
Zero has two birthdays. One marks its invention as a symbol for nothing, a placeholder that keeps the columns straight so a scribe can tell sixty from six hundred. The other marks its acceptance as a number in its own right, something that can be added, multiplied, divided, and trusted to behave inside an equation…
The Quiet Upgrade
Two pieces of news landed in the same week, and only one of them was written to be noticed. Apple’s Jeff Williams and John Ternus signed an internal memo touting the iPhone pipeline, calling the upcoming launch “phenomenal” and describing a product roadmap they clearly wanted people to feel good about. The memo leaked, as…